Market Update: Slow Sales, Cautious Buyers & the Investment Property Pullback

Denny: When you’re seasoned veterans like we are, Jamie, I don’t know if we feel rust, but it’s worth acknowledging that it’s been a few months. I think it’s just the chaos of being in a spring market that is a little more active for our team than we anticipated coming into the year. We’ll definitely share some stats to back up how we’re feeling right now. But I think the sentiment in a lot of Greater Vancouver around real estate is quite negative—especially in the media, and even among colleagues in our industry. I think a lot of people are feeling slow. As consumers, you’re probably seeing sale prices that are lower than last year and wondering what’s going on or if the sky is falling. We’ll definitely address that with some sales stats this episode, but it’s been a few months and there have been a lot of headlines, media, and news around real estate over the last few months.

Jamie: Yeah. So, there’s going to be a lot of topics that we’re going to jump around here. Market update, end of May 2026. Here we go. Where should we start, Denny? All in all, the market is still slow, but we’re in the busiest time of the year. We’re timestamping this as late May, and I think our last episode was early February. During that time, we were very busy; we had a lot going on. I’m sorry to the listeners that we didn’t prioritize the podcast, but we will make it up to you. Hopefully, this is step one back in the saddle for more of what’s going on.

Truthfully, there’s been a lot of talk about events that cause fear and aren’t really helpful in a lot of ways. One of them is the Richmond land rights issue that came up. It’s still going on and caused a lot of fear, but ultimately, not many people are talking about it. Do you have any clients, Denny, who have brought it up as a concern when buying or selling a property right now?

Denny: Not in the last couple of months. I think it was bigger in the first month or two of the year, and there is just ongoing uncertainty about how it’s going to play out. But in terms of day-to-day consumers buying and selling condos, townhomes, and entry-level single-family homes around Greater Vancouver, I haven’t had anyone ask me about it probably since March.

Jamie: Yeah, and call me an optimist, but I imagine it’s not going to spread to residential neighborhoods. The area that was affected is largely agricultural, involving about 150 private property owners. If it were in a neighborhood with a thousand homeowners, I think it would be a much bigger backlash and a much bigger story. Consider it a headline; let things pan out and don’t cause concern at this time. We’ll see how it evolves, but my guess is it will likely result in some sort of lump-sum payment for compensation or a land swap of some sort. I don’t think homeowners are going to lose their homes, and I don’t think there’s going to be a band tax going to First Nations. I think a settlement is more likely. I don’t think it’s going to spread all over, but time will tell. If it got worse and spread to residential neighborhoods, it would be a first, and there would be pitchforks on the street. I put that in the category of unfortunate news that has caused a lot of fear. Just know, if you’re listening from other areas, we’re not seeing clients talk about it, and it doesn’t seem to be one of the major factors in the market right now. We have other factors to get into.

Denny: Okay. All in all, the world economy isn’t doing great, and people are feeling it. Mortgage rates are up a little bit for the renewals happening this year compared to what people had five years ago. In short, our “makers” in BC, the Lower Mainland, and probably Canada—the companies that manufacture things and private sector businesses—are shrinking in a lot of sectors, while the public sector is growing. Municipalities have doubled in size during the same decade that the makers of BC have halved. The public sector is up, the private sector is down, and I don’t think that’s sustainable for a long time.

When is this market going to turn around? I think we need two things: first, we need to be more productive. We need our private sector to do better and our makers to make more. Second, we need less government spending. You can’t keep spending without a flourishing private sector. I don’t know when the private sector will turn around, but when it does, it will have a positive impact on the market. Increasing immigration could have an impact, as could loosening the money supply—whether through expanding mortgage amortizations, lowering interest rates, or reducing the stress test. These things make money easier to receive, which may not help inflation, but until those indicators point toward a quick rebound, there are other factors to consider. They aren’t making many more single-family homes in the city, so certain segments are holding their value and could, in theory, increase while times remain stale. Do you have an opinion, Denny, on when this market might show more life?

Denny: It’s funny because so many consumers are asking us about that right now. When we’re in listing appointments sharing current values, they are lower than they were 12 months ago. This is a shock to a lot of people because we had a bit of a downturn over the last few years with interest rates. People often ask, “What if I wait until next spring?” Our comment is usually that there aren’t signs showing next spring will be better. Is it two or three years away? For each little market segment and property type, it could be very different, but 2 to 3 years is probably the optimistic outlook. There’s really no indicator right now.

In theory, if housing starts remain low or non-existent for multi-family developments, the supply won’t increase, and eventually, demand will absorb the excess inventory. Two or three years from now, we might start seeing an uptick. Next year, however, could be exactly the same as this year, and waiting a year might not make a difference. The only exception causing upward pressure on prices is that material costs go up as our dollar stays flat or goes down. The cost of goods is getting more expensive, so the existing lumber in your home is going up in value even if the market remains flat as a whole. The replacement value of these homes might continue to climb, but I don’t see anything else necessarily pressing up prices. This is likely as affordable as our housing is going to get; we’ve achieved affordable housing, and we’re below replacement value. If it does backtrack a little, I could see the winter months being slower, but next spring shows no indicator of being better or worse. I would assume it’s going to be the same.

Speaking of affordable, last week I sold an awesome young family into a 2,500-square-foot townhouse in New West for $368 a square foot.

Jamie: When was the last time you even heard of that number?

Denny: Over a decade ago—maybe 15 or 20 years ago. Obviously, this is an older townhome in a 1990s complex, and there are quite a few of them in this specific neighborhood in New West. But if you’re a developer looking to reconstruct homes like that to put into the market, your construction cost alone is going to be higher than that, plus the cost of purchasing the land. We’ve done some evaluations lately for homeowners with development-type properties where you can now build townhomes, and we’re talking about $250 to $300 a foot just per unit for the land, plus construction costs.

Jamie: So you’re talking about $250,000 per townhouse unit for land cost?

Denny: Let’s clarify that a little bit. The construction cost of these types of units would be in the range of $400 a foot, plus the cost of the land.

Jamie: Correct, yeah.

Denny: And you can currently buy older townhomes with great floor plans that are a little dated for $368 a square foot.

Jamie: Yeah, there are only so many of them. Space is king right now, and families need space. Areas with layouts that accommodate a family at that affordable rate are doing quite well. I can’t remember how many inquiries we had on that townhome, but our inbox was absolutely flooded while it was on the market. To do the math, that was a 2,500-square-foot unit in the same neighborhood. They don’t build 2,500-square-foot townhomes nowadays; they are more like 1,600 or 1,700 square feet. If construction is $400 a foot and we estimate the land at $250,000 per unit, a developer’s cost works out to somewhere around $900,000 or $925,000. The finished sale price today might be $1.25 to $1.3 million. There is a margin there, but it takes a few years to put up. Those newer ones sell okay, but not as well as an older ’90s-built 2,500-square-foot place for $368 a foot.

Denny: Totally. And for those numbers, you’re building 1,600 square feet, not 2,500 square feet like the older ones.

Jamie: You mentioned the inventory crunch, and that might be something in the future that helps prices increase around Greater Vancouver. Specifically in the condo world, it’s probably going to take more than 2 to 3 years to see more activity. I think the quicker turnaround is on the single-family side, whereas condo inventory is going to take more time to be eaten up. There are a lot of small, awkwardly laid-out condos that have been on the market a long time that nobody wants right now.

We also wanted to mention the slowdown in new housing starts and new projects launching, with developers putting projects on hold. Some developers are re-evaluating active projects, giving deposits back to buyers, and converting the buildings into rental units. Other developers are going out of business entirely. That side of the industry is very bleak right now. I don’t know if traditional media is covering these stories much, but the construction and development side is currently the bleakest part of Canadian real estate. A big name like West Bank is getting the most attention, but there are a lot of developers struggling right now. Anyone sitting on an unsold, completed project is having a tough time.

Denny: Totally. Even reputable names like Bosa still have leftover inventory from the Pier West development at the Waterfront in New West, which originally launched back in 2018.

Jamie: Yeah. I don’t think they’re in trouble—I hope they’re not and can afford to take a hit—but it’s not a sign that encourages further development. I get a chuckle anytime I hear a realtor or anyone talk about the latest approval at city hall. They can approve whatever tower they want, but it’s not going to happen. Once an approval happens, there’s an expiry timestamp on it, and I don’t think the development will get off the ground before it expires. We might be in a slow decade. It’s hard to imagine how this will turn around like it did in the past without major changes happening quickly.

Right now, the properties that are moving belong to reasonable sellers, and buyers are highly price-sensitive. They are not going to overpay in this market, so it’s the sellers who come down to today’s market reality who are selling. Not all products are doing well, but if you have a typical single-family home on a quiet street with a decent layout at the right price, there are buyers for it. What could cause upward pressure on prices is if reasonable sellers diminish, quality inventory dwindles, and demand exceeds what’s left. We’ve seen markets in the past where low supply caused prices to trickle up. There could be a scenario between now and next year where motivated sellers sell off, quality inventory drops, and it causes upward pressure in certain pockets, but we’re definitely not talking about all areas of the Lower Mainland. Every neighborhood and price point is doing something different.

I remember seeing this back in the 2008–2009 market correction. East Vancouver was stable, active, held its prices much better, and bounced back quickly, whereas luxury suburbs or one-bedroom condos struggled because there were fewer buyers for them. Today we’re seeing similar patterns where specific pockets get a lot of attention. If you know the city well, live here, and want to upgrade your condo or house in a highly desirable neighborhood, those products are moving best. It’s not the investor products. There are some upper-end homes doing okay because high-income people aren’t feeling the pain and recognize that a house that used to be $3.5 million or $4.2 million is now available for $3 million, offering good value below replacement cost. There is some movement there, but it’s mostly in areas within a 30-minute commute to downtown. Once you get further out into the Valley, high-end properties struggle unless it’s a very rare product. There’s just not enough life over there. But in North Vancouver, there’s a bit of life above $3 million, and Burnaby has examples of that too. We’re in a world where East Van and Mount Pleasant are doing well. First-time buyers are a large segment, but when a two-bedroom condo price gets close to a one-bedroom price, those one-bedrooms become a struggle. Unless it’s a rare one-bedroom with a walk-out, a den, a great floor plan, and good outdoor space, small one-bedrooms without parking are a real struggle. The one-bedroom market is highly price-sensitive.

The overarching theme of Greater Vancouver real estate in 2026 is price sensitivity. It doesn’t matter what product you have—even if it’s a good, updated home on a quiet street in a great neighborhood—if you price it at last year’s numbers, it’s going to sit for a long time. A joke I keep making in listing appointments is: “Here’s the number that gives us the best chance at selling in 30 days, and here’s last year’s number, which might only be $50K to $100K off but means you’ll be on the market for two or three years.” That’s a bit of hyperbole, but we have so many examples from the last 12 months showing that pricing even slightly high—which for a condo might only be $25K to $50K, and for a house $50K to $100K—is the difference between getting an offer in the first few months or becoming a stale listing. In neighborhoods like East Vancouver, there are over 600 homes for sale right now, and New West has 126. You end up competing with listings that have been on the market a long time and are reducing their prices every month, so you’re just chasing the market down. As we’ve said a few times, the price you don’t want to hear today might be the price you wish you saw two or three months from now. A seller’s expectations change once the market beats them down, and they either decide to wait until another year or accept reality and move on.

About half of sales happen quickly—the majority within the first two weeks—while the other half linger through price reductions and market history until they get beat down to market value and a buyer scoops them up. But many homes are just sitting. When more listings come onto the market month-over-month than sales, and inventory is close to all-time highs, the stats aren’t in your favor. Markets that used to have 2 to 4 months of inventory now have 7 to 11 months of inventory because there aren’t enough buyers to absorb it. If supply and quality options dwindle while buyers remain, we could see some upward pressure, but interest rates will check that. If interest rates stay flat, the market stays flat. If they go up, it will definitely affect things and could get worse.

Currently, bond yields are up, which puts fixed rates up. Fixed rates available today are a little higher than they were a few months ago, leading to recommendations to lock in rates before they get worse. A 5-year fixed is now in the mid-4s (maybe 4.3% or 4.4% if you’re lucky), whereas at the beginning of the year, there were rates available under 4% or around 3.9%. However, bond rates are in constant movement globally; over the last week, they’ve actually come down slightly, meaning 5-year fixed rates may adjust in the next week or two. As of right now, the overnight rate remains at 2.25%, meaning the prime rate is 4.45%. For an insured mortgage, 5-year rates are around 4.09%. A conventional 5-year mortgage with 20% down is in the 4.4% to 4.6% range. For a variable rate, the discount off prime is about 0.7% or 0.8%, putting it in the 3.65% to 3.75% range. This creates a big spread gap between variable and 5-year fixed rates that we haven’t seen in quite a while. Some clients took a three-year fixed when it was around 3.8% because it was a nice balance, but it has since trickled up to 4.19% or 4.29%. Mortgage brokers are noting that practically nobody is choosing a three-year fixed right now because the discount doesn’t make sense.

Beyond that, to show how backward things can be, the City of Vancouver just repealed its ban on natural gas for heating and hot water. At the same time, the province is pushing back, asking them to reconsider or pause the decision because it doesn’t help meet the zero-carbon step code—yet the province is simultaneously supporting major liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects to export more of it throughout the world. I don’t understand the logic of increasing infrastructure to export natural gas while banning it locally. If fossil fuels are burned on a different side of the planet versus our side, it has an equal impact over the long run. While a zero-carbon world sounds like an idealistic hope, we have cheap natural gas at our doorstep. At a time when homeowners are struggling, it would be nice to have the win of a more affordable heating source. Ideologically it sounds good not to use fossil fuels, but practically it makes no sense right now when you think about requiring 400-amp services for a standard 33×120 lot in North Van or Vancouver to support electric cars, heat pumps, and multi-unit dwellings. It is incredibly expensive both to heat your home and to set up the infrastructure.

Back to interest rates, a major point of interest is that 2026 is the big year for mortgage renewals. In 2021, it was very common for people to lock in a 5-year fixed rate under 2%, and those are all coming up for renewal this year. Approximately 35% of Canadians—almost 1.2 million people—are renewing their mortgages in 2026, with June being one of the biggest months. We aren’t seeing a massive spike in distressed or court-ordered forced sales compared to the 2008–2009 crash, but they have ticked up slightly from being completely non-existent. It’s something to watch. I’ve only seen a handful of court-ordered sales listed this year, and one I saw in North Van was overpriced, so it wasn’t even priced well enough to get attention. Anyway, it’s something to watch in the future. While court-ordered sales have ticked up and increased slightly, they are still not plentiful—you’re not seeing foreclosures lining the streets.

Another thing to quickly mention is the foreign buyer ban in Canada. It had been extended, and that extension is now coming close to renewal on January 1, 2027. What are we expecting? Are we anticipating some sort of hybrid model after January 1, 2027? For example, maybe individuals who are not Canadian citizens or residents will be allowed to purchase pre-sales to help spark that development market. We know that governments like incentivizing developers. Do you think we will see a combination like that put through, or do you think they will simply extend the blanket ban for another three years?

Denny: Well, I know what I think they should do, but what they actually do is going to be a different story. The foreign buyer ban has good intent, but it shouldn’t be treated as a rigid blanket policy where it’s just completely on or off based on whether the market is performing well. Personally, I think we need foreign buyers to purchase new construction, but we don’t need them buying existing detached homes and land in cities with populations over 100,000. We should keep the foreign buyer ban firmly on for houses with land so locals can buy them. But when it comes to the concrete towers in Brentwood, Metrotown, and around the city, locals aren’t the ones buying those units anyway, so we should open them up to foreign buyers and give developers a fighting chance.

Furthermore, British Columbia leads the charge with some of the strongest tenancy laws around. If a foreign buyer is willing to act as a landlord for our locals, that should be viewed as a good thing. Otherwise, we are going to end up with purpose-built rental buildings all over the place. As a tenant, there is a positive to a purpose-built rental because you have long-term housing security and know you won’t be forced to move due to a landlord’s personal use. However, the negative is that because nobody in the building owns their property, people don’t take as good care of it, and it can become a bit chaotic when there are too many renters in one dwelling. A lot of tenants would actually prefer to live in buildings that feature a healthy mix of owners and renters.

Right now, there is very little financial incentive to be a landlord. We have sold off a number of condos for owners who are completely done renting them out, and I actually have a meeting later today with a client sharing that exact same story. The regulations put into place to protect tenants have reached a point where the incentive to act as a landlord is gone, which is actively shortening the overall housing supply. The supply is pivoting entirely toward purpose-built rentals, but I think the city would be better off if foreigners were buying new construction condos in the sky, leaving the resale market for locals while providing much-needed rental options. We need more landlords out there; that’s my two cents.

Jamie: Any chance you could have a consultation with David Eby in the next few months to share that? Speaking of investors, have you had any local investors buying investment properties in the last 12 months?

Denny: No, not really.

Jamie: I have one right now, which shows just how rare they are. I have a past client looking for an investment property, so we toured a handful last weekend. One of the listing realtors asked if they were planning to move into the home, and when they replied that it was strictly an investment property that their son might move into after university, the realtor was completely shocked. It is incredibly rare right now.

Rents are down a bit, which is a contributing factor. Once you rent a place out, you are largely at the mercy of the tenant unless you intend to move in yourself or incentivize them to leave. That said, when I look at what one-bedrooms are going for in Coquitlam, the numbers are starting to make sense to consider them as rental properties again. But overall, we aren’t seeing many people investing because there are other asset classes to put money into right now. The market is mostly dominated by end-users—either first-time buyers or families looking to upsize for more space.

On the investor note, look at land assemblies. There is no longer a premium on your home for a land assembly. While development potential for properties with land has technically gone up with new zoning mandates, developers aren’t actively buying. There are very few land assembly sales happening, and I feel bad for the realtors involved in trying to put them together. For a land value sale to happen now, it has to be an exceptional deal. It is easily the worst-hit segment of the market. Unless a house is tiny, dilapidated, and sitting on a massive lot, its best use is just selling to an end-user who wants to live there. You aren’t going to get a 20% or 30% premium anymore; end-users are the highest and best buyers right now.

Denny: You mentioned land being one of the worst-hit segments, but I would say new construction is equally bad. That is obviously disincentivizing developers from purchasing land and moving forward with developments at the moment.

Jamie: Absolutely. In my opinion, the only segment of new development that has a real future right now is family townhouses. The cost to build a townhouse is within a reasonable margin of current market values that buyers are willing to pay. In contrast, the cost to build a concrete tower or condo high-rise is still well above where they are currently trading. Furthermore, the purpose-built rental market is becoming quite flooded, so I don’t know if that development wave will continue. Right now, the only real angles for buying land are either purchasing it to sit on while waiting for brighter days, or if an end-user wants to build a custom multi-generational home. The traditional speculative builder buying a lot to immediately construct and flip a new single-family home is gone. There are still three-to-six-unit multiplex projects underway, but because the market has worsened since those projects began, those developers aren’t feeling great about them.

Buying land just to sit on for a few years only makes sense if you confidently believe the land value will appreciate. Otherwise, there is no point in carrying a cash-flow-negative asset, incurring yearly property taxes, and dealing with the hassle of being a landlord. A lot of people today expect land values to remain flat for the next three years, so they are opting out. However, land can shift quickly once profitability returns to these multi-unit developments, and this city is full of builders who have it in their blood to make money off buying, renting, and building. They might be twiddling their thumbs for a little bit while things are quiet, but while that whole sector is down right now, it will bounce back once sale prices make sense again. Will it happen next year? Probably not, but hopefully we will see it in three years. In the meantime, rare lots are coming up that you would never have the chance to buy in a stronger market, so if a location is great, the lot is big, and the existing home is livable, there is still some logic to buying.

Where should we roll next, Denny? Should we talk about some specific neighborhoods and look at who is actually buying and what is selling?

Denny: Before we do, I wanted to touch on something you mentioned earlier regarding days on market and correct pricing. There is an incredibly interesting contrast right now between the average days on market for homes that have successfully sold in the last 60 days versus the average days on market for properties currently sitting listed for sale. They are two drastically different numbers.

Jamie: Do you want to dive into those? I can share the broad market statistics from the latest Real Estate Board release to set the stage. We are in late May, so these are the April stats, but May feels very similar so we can assume a comparable story. In April 2026, sales volume was down just 2.5% compared to April 2025, making them quite similar. However, new listings were also down 2.5% from last April. Interestingly, detached home sales were up while condo sales were down. Specifically, there were 659 detached home sales in April compared to 578 last year, while apartment sales dropped to 1,009 compared to 1,130 last year.

The benchmark price for a detached home fell 8.3% over the last 12 months, and the benchmark price for a condo fell 7.9%. Total cumulative inventory is nearly identical to last year, sitting at 37.9% above the 10-year average. While it isn’t an all-time record, we are very close to record levels of inventory. I expect May will show a similar story of above-average inventory, steady sales volume, detached sales trending up, and condos trending down.

Denny: How many years does it take for a slow market like this to start skewing that 10-year average upward?

Jamie: You’re exactly right—this current market is actively influencing and raising that 10-year average. It is worth acknowledging that this average includes the massive outlier years of 2021 and 2022, which saw outstanding, frenetic sales volumes, creating a massive contrast to what we are seeing today. But let’s get into the hot spots. What are you seeing out there?

Denny: Let’s start with single-family homes. Jamie and I are having conversations about market conditions twelve hours a day, seven days a week right now, and people usually ask us assuming our answer will be completely bleak and negative. But from our perspective and what we’re seeing in our business across Vancouver and its suburbs, things aren’t actually that bad. When you look at sales ratios across several different neighborhoods for entry-level single-family homes, two-bedroom condos, and three-bedroom townhouses, the numbers reflect a remarkably balanced market—meaning between 10% and 20% of inventory is selling in any given month.

For example, in New Westminster’s single-family market, there are currently 125 homes for sale, and 34 have sold in the last 60 days. That represents a balanced 13.6% sales ratio. Going back to days on market: the 34 homes that sold averaged just 25 days on the market. In contrast, of the 125 homes currently listed, the average sits at 90 days on the market—over three times as long. The average sale price for a single-family home in New West over the last couple of months was $1.45 million, and eight of those sold at or above list price. We were actually behind a couple of those sales, and I’ll admit that in most circumstances, hitting those numbers right now requires a little bit of luck.

Jamie: To expand on that, out of our last five single-family home sales and accepted offers, four of them actually faced multiple-offer scenarios. One ended up selling below list price, but three sold above list. The common denominator among all of those homes is that none were brand-new constructions; they all had a degree of renovations. An older, updated home is where the real value and activity sit right now. To add to your comments, if you look at New Westminster detached homes as a whole, there is about 7.5 months of total inventory, but the most active price segment is strictly between $1.3 million and $1.6 million. The upper end of the New West market is slow, but the bulk of buyers exist in that $1.3 million to $1.6 million range, with a lot of our multiple-offer success occurring up to the $1.8 million mark for mid-century homes with quality renovations.

Denny: Exactly. When I say we got a little bit lucky, I mean that this is not a market where you intentionally price a home low to engineer a bidding war. Pricing competitively doesn’t guarantee multiple writing groups, let alone a quick sale in the first week or two. It felt like luck because we priced these homes accurately based on recent comparable sales—and in some cases slightly above—and we simply benefited from two distinct buyers falling in love with the property and refusing to lose it. The outcome is always better when you have two motivated buyers.

Jamie: For active neighborhood hot spots in New West, areas like Glenbrooke North, the West End, and the Heights are doing well. These areas offer quiet streets, great school catchments, larger lots, and a solid mix of housing options at relatively affordable rates. The properties that are heavily struggling are those on busy streets, homes with quirky layouts, bad DIY renovations, straight land-value listings, and high-end new constructions that are simply priced too high for today’s market reality.

Denny: It’s also important to clarify that when we cite an average of 90 days on market for current listings, that only tracks the current listing stint. Many of these properties have been taken on and off the market multiple times with consecutive price adjustments. In reality, if you were to look at their true cumulative market history, that average is likely closer to 125 or 130 days.

Jamie: Roughly half of the successful sales are catching a buyer right away in the first two weeks because the product and price are exactly right, while the other half have to endure a longer market history of price reductions until they finally match true market value.

Looking at other areas north of the Fraser River, the story is quite similar. Port Moody currently sits at an 11% sales ratio, with 121 homes for sale and 26 sold in the last 60 days. Their days on market numbers mirror New West: 27 days for sales versus 60 days for active listings. In East Vancouver, there are 648 homes for sale right now with an average of 105 days on market. They saw 147 sales over the last two months, representing an 11.3% sales ratio, or about nine months of inventory.

The highest single-family sales ratio I could find across the region was in North Vancouver. They have 403 homes for sale and saw 125 sales in the last 60 days, yielding a 15.5% sales ratio. Notably, 28 of those 125 homes sold at or above asking price, meaning roughly 20% of the market experienced competitive bidding. If you are a high-income family, North Van remains one of the absolute most desirable places to be.

Denny: You have incredible access to the outdoors, great schools, and a close commute to downtown Vancouver. At 6 to 7 months of inventory, it is easily the hottest detached housing market out there. The median sale price for a house in North Vancouver over the last 60 days was $2 million, which typically gets you a 40-to-50-year-old, 2,500-square-foot home that is fairly dated and lacking major renovations. The highest sale in North Van hit $5.65 million, and there was plenty of activity above the $3 million mark, reflecting the deep pockets out that way. The dominant buyers are families upsizing into 2,000-to-3,500-square-foot homes in areas like Lynn Valley, Upper Lonsdale, and Deep Cove. It is a highly price-sensitive market; if you overprice your home there, buyers simply won’t pay a premium right now.

Jamie: Now, if we cross the Fraser River to the south side, the sales ratios look entirely different. Langley’s single-family market currently has 712 homes for sale with 153 sales in the last 60 days, coming in at a 10.7% sales ratio and an average sale price just over $1.5 million. Maple Ridge is lower still, with 548 homes for sale and 91 sales, sitting at an 8.3% sales ratio and an average sale price just under $1.2 million.

We also saw some fascinating data in Vancouver’s highest-end neighborhoods: Dunbar, Point Grey, and Shaughnessy. Across those three luxury areas, there are 252 homes for sale and only 37 sales in the last 60 days, resulting in a slow 7.3% sales ratio.

Denny: Maple Ridge is a wild case—it has essentially become a “last decade” neighborhood where some property values were arguably higher ten years ago than they are today. A decade ago, there was a massive wave of foreign buyers that heavily impacted these markets, which is exactly why the government instituted the foreign buyer ban. We recently had a client buy out that way and the numbers were shocking. We saw instances where sellers were willing to take significant losses relative to what they originally paid. In one incredible case, a home purchased in 2021 for $8.1 million was listed on the market for $5.99 million—and the sellers were open to taking even less. That is potentially a $2.5 million hit.

We saw a similar trend with a property we sold in Point Grey. It was a standard 33×122 lot with an updated, older home that sold for $2.4 million. The baseline land value there is around $2.1 million, whereas that exact same land value peaked in the mid-$3 millions back around 2016 or 2017. You could argue that, over a ten-year horizon, the foreign buyer ban achieved its goal of pulling prices down to a more realistic baseline. I feel bad for the homeowners who bought at the absolute peak, but that is our current reality. It reinforces my earlier point: we should keep the ban on for land and detached houses to prevent another artificial spike, but open it up for new concrete condos.

Jamie: Looking at the absolute slowest segments in Greater Vancouver, anything in Burnaby listed over $3 million is heavily stalling. In that high-end bracket, Burnaby has 89 homes listed and saw just 9 sales in the last 60 days—a meager 5.1% sales ratio. Coquitlam is equally quiet for new luxury builds over $3 million. There are 60 homes for sale, and over the last 60 days, only two have sold.

Denny: That is a 1-in-30 success rate per month for luxury new construction in Coquitlam right now. A lot of new construction is pinned to yesterday’s peak development costs because builders are trying not to lose their shirts, but the market has moved on. If you look at Burnaby North, however, there is still some life for homes that aren’t brand new but are around 10 years old. We saw sales in the $3 million to $3.5 million range for 2015-built, 4,700-square-foot homes. For high-income buyers, that represents a fantastic value play compared to trying to build a custom home yourself today.

Jamie: I looked into Burnaby North specifically because it was a major hotspot last year after it rapidly adopted the province’s small-scale multi-unit housing density mandates. Builders flocked there initially, but times have changed. Burnaby North now has 234 active listings and only 32 sales over the last 60 days, meaning they are facing over 10 months of inventory. The median sale price sits at $2.33 million—slightly higher than North Vancouver. The most active price segment is between $1.7 million and $2.3 million, driven entirely by families buying renovated bungalows for more space. Land value is down, and highly desirable pockets like Capitol Hill and Vancouver Heights are still pulling demand, but anything overpriced will simply sit.

Should we pivot to three-bedroom townhomes?

Denny: Let’s do it. Three-bedroom townhomes consistently remain one of our most resilient product types. For many people who grew up in Greater Vancouver, single-family homes have become financially out of reach, making a three-bedroom townhouse the natural, necessary next step for a growing family. In the Tri-Cities, the townhouse sales ratio sits at a healthy 14.7%, with 186 properties for sale and 55 sold over the last 60 days at an average price of $1.03 million. Keep in mind that inventory includes Burke Mountain, which holds a massive amount of townhouse supply, making that a very respectable ratio.

Jamie: In Langley, while the single-family ratio is slow at 10.7%, three-bedroom townhouses are much more active at 17.2%, with 160 for sale and 55 sold. The average price for a Langley townhouse is $812,000, which is notably lower than its peak two to three years ago. Maple Ridge shows a similar pattern: an 8.3% single-family ratio compared to a much stronger 15.1% townhouse ratio, with 106 for sale, 32 sold, and an average sale price of $727,000, offering fantastic value.

Can you guess where the absolute hottest market for three-bedroom townhouses is right now?

Denny: Based on the highest sales ratio, I’m going to guess North Vancouver.

Jamie: You are on fire today. North Vancouver has 87 townhouses for sale and saw 41 sales in the last 60 days, racking up a stellar 23.5% sales ratio. The average price sits at $1.3 million. Statistically, that looks like a seller’s market, but the ground reality doesn’t feel like one, so sellers shouldn’t let the raw percentages skew their expectations.

The North Van townhouse market is a fantastic place to look for older properties. You can pick up a spacious 2,000-square-foot townhouse near Capilano University, close to the highway and downtown, for around $1.1 million to $1.2 million if it’s renovated. For a family, that gets you a highly functional layout, ample square footage, covered parking, and great community amenities like complex pools. Many of these older builds have a distinct duplex feel where you only share a single wall, giving you yard space and a living experience that feels much closer to a detached home. They are completely under the radar right now.

Denny: To wrap up, let’s look at a couple of condo markets, starting with New Westminster. New West currently has 401 active condo listings and saw 80 sales over the last 60 days, putting it at roughly 9 to 10 months of total inventory. However, certain sub-segments are vastly more active than others. If you isolate newer concrete and frame condos built within the last 20 years, a massive divergence appears between one-bedroom and two-bedroom units. Because entry-level two-bedroom prices have dropped so close to one-bedroom pricing, buyers are overwhelmingly choosing the extra space. Out of 28 recent condo sales in that category, 28 were two-bedrooms and only 10 were one-bedrooms. The most active price velocity is concentrated strictly between $500,000 and $650,000. The least active bracket was anything over $800,000, $850,000, or $900,000—that upper end is just not moving much at all.

The absolute hot zone for activity was the New West Quay. Why? Because local buyers love the Quay. If you can find a unit facing the water, it represents an exceptional value play with great, functional floor plans. We actually had success selling a property down there not long ago. Not all buildings on the Quay are built alike; the area includes the older low-rises right on the boardwalk, but it also features premium concrete developments like RiverSky by Bosa. Right now, buying an 800-square-foot unit at RiverSky—staring directly at the water with fantastic building amenities—costs far less than it would to build a comparable project today. You are essentially acquiring real estate below its true replacement value.

If you drop your baseline from $800 a square foot down to the $700 range, you shift to concrete high-rises like Azure at Plaza 88 on Carnarvon Street, right over the SkyTrain station. If you scale back further to around $625 or $650 a foot, you look toward wood-frame options like the Salter buildings in Queensborough. The highest value we tracked in New Westminster over the last 60 days topped out at $910 a square foot. Pockets like Glenbrooke North also have solid condo options that see immediate traction whenever a quality unit hits the market. Ultimately, New West is a fantastic proving ground for an entry-level two-bedroom condo. The downtown core currently has slightly more inventory than active demand, making it feel slow, but it presents real opportunities for patient buyers.

Jamie: Shifting focus, I looked closely at the Brentwood condo market, which currently has 358 active listings. They recorded 87 sales over the last 60 days.

Denny: That volume is actually higher than I would have anticipated.

Jamie: I thought the exact same thing. To put it in perspective, Brentwood alone has nearly as many active condo listings as all of New Westminster combined. Yet, as a singular neighborhood, Brentwood pulled in more total sales over the last 60 days than the entire city of New West—87 sales versus 80. In a weaker, more conservative macro market, buyers naturally gravitate closer to the geographic core. It is highly connected, convenient, and offers rapid transit access.

Brentwood currently holds roughly 7 to 7.5 months of inventory with a baseline median sale price of $725,000. Isolating concrete buildings aged 20 years or newer, the market remains heavily biased toward extra square footage: 52 two-bedroom units sold compared to 22 one-bedrooms. Buyers are still willing to stretch for a second bedroom. However, because overall price points are higher here, one-bedrooms still serve as a critical entry point for first-time buyers.

In terms of cost per square foot, paying around $900 a foot gets you a modern unit built within the last 3 to 5 years. Pushing that up to $1,000 or $1,050 a square foot secures a pristine, near-new space constructed within the last 12 to 24 months. Conversely, if you look at well-maintained buildings in the 15-to-20-year age bracket, your cost drops to roughly $800 a square foot. The absolute sweetest spot for sales velocity sits firmly between $550,000 and $850,000, heavily dominated by those two-bedroom layouts. That’s my broad look at Brentwood, Denny. Are there any other regional highlights standing out to you?

Denny: I analyzed two-bedroom condo segments right across Greater Vancouver, and the underlying sales ratios are remarkably uniform. As a rule of thumb, if you isolate one-bedroom metrics on their own, the total sales volume drops to about 50% to 70% of these numbers. To break down the active two-bedroom sales ratios: New Westminster sits at 13.5%, Coquitlam tracks right alongside it at 13%, Port Moody comes in at 15.8%, and North Vancouver leads the suburban pack at 16%.

Then we look at Yaletown. We have given Yaletown a notably hard time over the last few years, to the point where we completely stopped highlighting it on the show.

Jamie: Totally. I am glad you are finally giving Yaletown some hard-earned kudos here; the neighborhood deserves some love.

Denny: It actually posted numbers higher than I anticipated. I fully expected it to sit well below a 10% sales ratio, but it clocked in at 13.7%, logging 34 successful sales over the last two months against 124 active listings.

Now, let’s see if you can go three-for-three on your market guesses today. I tracked the single highest sales ratio for a two-bedroom condo market across the region. As a hint, it is a specific urban neighborhood, not an entire municipality.

Jamie: Mount Pleasant? Or perhaps Grandview-Woodland?

Denny: Excellent guesses, but it is actually Olympic Village. They are sitting with just 30 active listings on the market right now and racked up 20 sales over the last 60 days—yielding a massive 33% sales ratio.

Jamie: That makes complete sense, and it represents a fascinating reversal of the pandemic housing trend. The specific urban hubs that weakened during the peak COVID-19 years are seeing a significant resurgence in demand, with the momentum swinging entirely back toward the city center. There is a clear, renewed hunger among buyers to be located closer to downtown.

That covers an immense amount of statistical data for one episode. If you have listened all the way through to this point, congratulations—you made it! Taking these numbers into account and looking at what lies immediately ahead, my expectation for the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate announcement in June is that we will see absolutely no change to the overnight rate. If we do begin to see any downward policy shifts, they likely won’t materialize until late autumn or winter. My realistic hope is simply for the rate to hold completely flat.

In terms of reading this data on the ground, I view the broader market as remaining entirely flat. We will likely head into a standard mid-summer lull where sales volumes drop off through July and August, followed by a minor uptick in September, leading into a quiet winter season. If you look macroscopically at every single listing versus every single sale across the board, it paints a fairly bleak picture. However, when you truly understand the neighborhoods, live the city daily, and isolate the highly desirable product segments at the right price points, it is a remarkably balanced market.

Do not sit on the sidelines waiting for the sky to fall. Take calculated advantage of the slower pace, enjoy the expanded inventory selection, and be incredibly discerning. Wait patiently for the ideal layout to appear. In a lot of these concrete towers, a premium corner unit facing the right direction might only come up for sale once every five years. You can try to perfectly time the macro market cycles, but you run the risk of missing out on the exact physical asset you want. Alternatively, you can secure the ideal property when it surfaces and stop worrying about short-term market timing.

Denny: I completely agree. If we look at where the greatest strategic opportunity lies across Greater Vancouver over the next 6 to 12 months, it is explicitly for homeowners who currently own a strata property and want to upsize into a townhouse or, even more urgently, a detached single-family home. If we experience a sudden upward run on prices two, three, or four years down the road, it is going to ignite in the single-family market first due to restricted long-term inventory and baseline demand, whereas the condo market will remain flatter for a longer period.

Look at how significantly detached single-family home prices have corrected. Even out in the Greater Vancouver suburbs, many sale prices are sitting $200,000 to $400,000 lower than their 2021 peaks. And as we noted with those massive luxury outliers on the Westside—like Shaughnessy, Dunbar, and Point Grey—prices on high-end properties are down upwards of $2 million, whereas your standard two-bedroom condo in Burnaby, for example, might only be down $150,000.

So, do the math: you are upsizing into a detached asset class that has come down by $400,000, while selling an existing condo asset that has only corrected by $150,000. That net financial equation looks incredibly favorable.

Jamie: Absolutely.

Denny: Well, I think May is going to tell a very similar story as well. We are in late May now, and I think June is going to track similarly. I am highly curious to see what unfolds as we head into the fall market.

Jamie: We’ll wait and watch. We hope you enjoyed this market update from Denny and James. We’re back.